The Rise of Crypto, Again

In October, I last wrote about Coinbase’s progress before the U.S. Presidential election. It was significant on many fronts. Now it looks like the market is reviving and preparing for the next bull run. Let’s review the current state of the market.

Crypto’s New Czar

I’ve been following David Sacks for years. He’s a brilliant investor, founder and podcaster. I first learned about Sacks when he was building and selling Yammer. At the time, Microsoft buying Yammer for $1.2 billion in cash was a major success in 2012. This was a moment when everyone in the world was still using Skype.

Now he’s the Czar of Crypto & A.I. for the White House. This has been a big step in the right direction for America’s technology narrative. For years, both of these divisions faced significant roadblocks when it came to growth. In fact, crypto had been fighting a regulatory uphill battle since Gary Gensler was in office.

But now we’ve seen even President Trump and his family sell memecoins. It has been a complete 180 from where the industry once was. Stripe just completed its acquisition of Bridge, the stablecoin. I think this is the beginning of a new revolution for finance and banking. After years of regulatory pressure, the capital markets will reopen for fintech.

Coinbase’s success

I’ve been following Coinbase since its Direct Listing in 2021. Most investors may realize how Direct Listings differ from IPOs but it was a massive success for shareholders. Instead of doing the typical roadshow to raise capital, Coinbase sold shares directly to the market. This was a lower-cost, more effective way to go public. Much better than the typical SPAC route too.

But since 2021, crypto has been on a volatile ride. Coinbase went from earning significant profits to taking massive losses in one year. They were not the exception. Everyone had a tough year in 2022.

And since 2022, fintech had died in many ways. During that period Silicon Valley Bank blew up and countless founders were being debanked. The capital markets slowed down and very few deals were getting done until recently. When President Trump won the election in November 2024, we saw a revival in the markets.

In fact, Coinbase and crypto have benefitted the most from the new Administration. The two biggest victories in January 2025 alone have been Gary Gensler stepping down and Coinbase’s team reviewing declassified material. I’ve seen countless legal documents of how banks were prohibited from investing in crypto because of conflicting government agencies.

But now the tide is turning. I think we might see 1-2 new crypto IPOs come to market soon. There are already a few fintech IPO lined up for Q1 and Q2 2025. However, the capital markets needs more alternatives to Coinbase and I think they are coming soon.